terça-feira, 1 de outubro de 2013

Stability in the Euro Zone in the hands of Enrico Letta

The pressure of the markets returned this week hovering about Italy. The resignation on Saturday of five Ministers affection to the center-right party led by Silvio Berlusconi, who orchestrated this step, put into question the coalition Government led by Enrico Letta, the centre-left democratic party.

The Milan Stock Exchange reacted in accordance to the political shock of the weekend was the most penalized of Europe in this first day of a week that has proved crucial to the immediate future of Italy. Enrico Letta is heard Wednesday in the Italian Parliament and will ask for a vote of confidence to revamp the Government and carry out reforms considered essential to the recovery of the eurozone's third largest economy.

At the same time, the people of freedom party, Silvio Berlusconi, is boiling and some of the leading figures reveal opening to cut the link with the former Prime Minister and create a new leadership. The markets are watching the process unfold, revealing a fear of investing and to have led the Milan Stock Exchange closed this Monday in the 1.3 per cent below the water line.

The problem is that the political crisis threatens to bring to Italy for economic chaos. After five months of relative stability, it may implode, now dragging probably also all the eurozone for a devastating crisis. With so much at stake, we went to Maurizio Mazziero, privileged observer and founder of Mazziero Research Analyst, known Italian financial consultant

euronews â€" we are again on the brink of the abyss? Maurizio Mazziero-is possible. However, the sectors that are likely to feel the biggest problems are the financial and banking. I must emphasise, however, that we are witnessing a certain economic recovery. It is revealed by indicators and OECD forecasts. There is, however, a problem remains: the public debt. By our estimates, the August data will show us almost certainly a slight recovery and a decrease of about 10 billion euros in debt. At the end of the year, however, the public debt is expected to reach a record value.

euronews â€" at the same time we are discussing here, rumors circulate that a rating agency prepares to bring down the level of Italy due to a lack of political reforms. Will financial speculators to target again to Italy? MM â€" investors are assessing the situation very carefully and, all in all, it wasn't even very dramatic developments in the stock market Monday. Even the increase in the spread was not relevant. In paradox, this political crisis may even have a positive effect on GDP, parameters that are currently exceeding three percent: 3.1 percent in optics and 3.2 percent according to the IMF. But these parameters may even fall under three percent if you confirm an increase in tax revenue through the VAT rise, which, it appears, is confirmed and should start being implemented already this Tuesday â€" what sum the second instalment payment still IMI.

euronews â€" Prime Minister Enrico Letta will ask on Wednesday, a vote of confidence in the Italian Parliament. How the markets are looking at this? MM â€" if he can unite the Parliament and make it, even with some instability, apply the necessary reforms and submit that that will be the budget for 2014, the markets could recover some reassurance. If you instead move to elections, rises a great unknown and markets may, in fact, penalized Italy with an increase in the spread, but especially punishing the new issuance of government debt.

euronews â€" Milan Stock Exchange, meanwhile, shares of Mediaset, the Berlusconi family, are losing value. The crisis in the party people of freedom can lead to divisions on the right and, who knows, the new leadership. Will, in the end, Silvio Berlusconi only to pay the huge bill this uprising which he himself provoked? MM-I think who is paying the Bill is the Italian people. We got two huge problems: the public debt and a country that doesn't grow. Are both structural problems from an economic point of view. So, who's going to pay the Bill are the Italians.

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