terça-feira, 5 de janeiro de 2016

The Shia in Saudi Arabia "sacrifice"

Gilles Kepel: "we watched 47 executions in Saudi Arabia, which is a lot. 43 were Sunni opponents, radicals linked to Al-Qaeda or DAESH which, of course, by tribal issues, are much more dangerous for the power of Saudi Arabia than Shiite minorities. To get more easily, the execution of all Sunni radicals, the Saudi Government gave, and I dare say, in sacrifice, the small number of Shiites who was executed. We have the impression that the Saudi Arabia finds itself between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, and internally, the Saudis feel obliged to fight against Islamic extremism, a Sunni, that a number of Saudi businessmen financed. Funded the Al Qaeda and the groups today DAESH turn against them. At the same time, and ahead of the Saudis is that Iran wants to have a position of hegemony in the Gulf. It joins, too, the price of a barrel of oil below $ 40 and this poses a big problem of budgetary balance to Saudi Arabia. Increases the claims, especially among those who were excluded from the succession line that has just taken place in Saudi Arabia. "

Euronews: considers that this behavior related to the oil can have consequences for the rest of the world, in particular, in economic terms?

Kepel: "the problem is that it was the Saudis who led to falling prices by increasing production. Why? Because they wanted to reach the United States that they place on the market the shale oil and threaten the supremacy of Saudi Arabia, the oil's supremacy in the Middle East. If prices are too low, the American shale oil producers no longer produce and the Saudis can dominate the market. The problem is that there is a period of several months or several years before this strategy works, and during this time, the monarchy can face financial hardship, terrible political and social. "

Euronews: we know that the two regional powers fighting on the ground, in Syria and Yemen. Considers that this situation may have consequences in these two wars, in particular?

Kepel: "Some powers face this situation with a lot of anxiety. The Russia that is now a petromonarquia. The fall of oil price worries and Mr. Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Minister has offered to mediate in the crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is extraordinary. This means that the United States cannot do. Is also a way to show that the United States, President Obama, put themselves-in a way-out of the race in the Middle East. "

Euronews: you could say that this situation benefits the self-proclaimed Islamic State?

Kepel: "the diplomatic crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia affects both countries, but also the region. This is because if there is a crisis, with this intensity, the coalition against the DAESH cannot function. "

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