Turkey: AKP needs most and HDP of 10% of the votes

Turkey's legislative elections on Sunday, may mark the end of 12 years of unchallenged domain of the AKP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President. Needs a majority of 330 seats, to change the Constitution and establish a presidential system. But various obstacles can block the way. Despite the victory of the AKP being granted, the polls announced a decline of the ruling party, the latest assigns him 42% of the vote.

Among the obstacles to the majority, is the HDP. The small pro-Kurdish paper party became a real threat to the AKP, which may exceed the threshold of 10%, which is required to enter the Turkish Parliament. Selahattin Demirtas, the charismatic leader, gained 9.8% of votes in the presidential, last August, which serves as an indicator. So far, the AKP took the low score of the HDP, via the Web which is the electoral system. All votes cast for parties that do not cross the threshold of 10% shall accrue automatically to the winning party.

The stagnant economy also plays against the AKP. For years, the growth was 10%. In 2014, there has been a fall of 2.9%, and 2015 started with zero growth in the first quarter. This slowdown has revealed the weaknesses of an economy dependent on construction, consumption and household indebtedness. Suddenly, the economy became grounds for opposition campaign and put the AKP on the defensive.

The only thing that could weaken public support the AKP, it would be the change of Government policy in relation to Syria. Four years of war have changed the demographics of the Turkish border areas, with the influx of nearly two million refugees, more than any other neighboring country of Syria. The sudden acceptance of so many people has caused a sense of economic insecurity to the inhabitants of these regions. In addition to this policy of "open borders" to the Syrians, the country is one of the biggest opponents to Bashar al Assad. A policy that, in Turkey, if criticize for being too aggressive and interventionist.

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